Before you talk to a single installer, you should know roughly how many panels your home needs. Installers who quote without asking about your electricity bill are guessing. You don't have to guess — the calculation takes three inputs and five minutes.
The Three Inputs You Need
Every solar sizing calculation starts with three numbers:
- Your monthly electricity usage — in kilowatt-hours (kWh). Find this on your utility bill.
- Your location's peak sun hours — the daily average solar irradiance where you live, measured in hours at full intensity.
- The panel wattage — how much power each panel produces at peak conditions, typically between 350W and 450W for modern residential panels.
The Formula
The 0.80 derate factor accounts for real-world losses — inverter inefficiency, wiring resistance, dust on panels, and high-temperature performance degradation. Most installers use 0.75 to 0.85; 0.80 is a solid middle estimate.
Step-by-Step Worked Example
Example: Phoenix, AZ homeowner
Monthly usage: 1,200 kWh
Peak sun hours: 5.5 hrs/day (Phoenix average)
Panel wattage: 400W
Target offset: 100%
System kW = (1,200 × 12 × 1.0) ÷ (5.5 × 365 × 0.80)
= 14,400 ÷ 1,606 = 8.97 kW ≈ 9 kW
Panel count = (9,000W) ÷ 400W = 22–23 panels
Example: Boston, MA homeowner
Monthly usage: 900 kWh
Peak sun hours: 4.0 hrs/day (New England average)
Panel wattage: 400W
Target offset: 90%
System kW = (900 × 12 × 0.90) ÷ (4.0 × 365 × 0.80)
= 9,720 ÷ 1,168 = 8.32 kW ≈ 8.5 kW
Panel count = (8,500W) ÷ 400W = 21–22 panels
How Peak Sun Hours Vary by State
Peak sun hours are the biggest variable in this calculation — they swing the panel count by 30% or more between the sunniest and cloudiest states. General ranges:
- Southwest (AZ, NV, NM, CA desert): 5.5–6.5 hrs/day
- Southeast & Midwest (TX, FL, CO, GA): 4.5–5.5 hrs/day
- Mid-Atlantic & Mountain (NC, VA, UT): 4.0–5.0 hrs/day
- Northwest & Northeast (WA, OR, ME, VT): 3.5–4.5 hrs/day
Our System Size Calculator has state-level peak sun hour averages built in — you don't need to look them up manually.
What About Roof Space?
A standard 400W panel measures roughly 68" × 40" — about 18.9 square feet. If a calculation calls for 20 panels, you need at least 380 square feet of suitable roof space. Suitable means south- or southwest-facing, minimal shading from trees or chimneys, and a pitch between 15° and 40°.
If your roof can't fit the full system, you have two options: use higher-wattage panels to get more power from fewer panels, or size down the system and plan for a partial offset.
Should You Size for 80% or 100% Offset?
Sizing for exactly 100% of your annual usage sounds ideal, but it's often not the most cost-effective choice. Here's why:
- A 100% offset system produces more electricity than you need in summer, and the excess energy credit rates from utilities vary widely.
- An 80–90% offset system is typically smaller, cheaper, and still eliminates the vast majority of your electricity bill.
- If you're adding an EV or a heat pump in the near future, size up to account for that new load now rather than adding panels later.
Panel Wattage Comparison
Modern residential panels range from about 350W to 450W. Higher wattage means fewer panels to reach the same system size:
- 350W panels: 26 panels for a 9 kW system
- 400W panels: 23 panels for a 9 kW system
- 440W panels: 21 panels for a 9 kW system
Higher-wattage panels typically cost more per panel but save on installation labor, racking hardware, and roof penetrations — the per-watt cost can end up similar or better.
Use the Calculator for Your Exact Numbers
The formulas above give you a reliable estimate. For your exact panel count with your specific monthly usage and your state's precise sun hours, use the free calculator below.
Ready to calculate your exact system size?
Use the Free System Size Calculator →